10-year risk scale of cardiovascular events for middle-aged and elderly people with type 2 diabetes mellitus

The purpose of this study was to create a scoring scale for assessing the 10-year risk of cardiovascular events for middle-aged and elderly people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM).

Material and methods. The analysis included data from 314 people with T2DM: 142 men, 242 women, the average age for both sexes was 60.81 ± 6.38 years. The baseline survey was carried out within the framework of the HAPIEE project; the observation period lasted from 2003–2005. to December 31, 2013 and averaged 10 years. Persons who had myocardial infarction and/or cerebral stroke before the examination were excluded from the analysis. Non-fatal cardiovascular (CV) diseases and CV death were established in accordance with the codes of the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision. As part of the study, two groups were formed: the main group, which included people with T2DM who “developed CV events” over 10 years of observation – 50 (15.9 %) people, and a comparison group – people with T2DM who “did not develop CV events” during the observation period (264 people). Anthropometric indicators, blood pressure, socio-demographic data, and some biochemical parameters were determined. To analyze the association of the studied factors with the risk of CV events, multivariate stepwise Cox regression analysis was used.

Results. As a result of multivariate Cox regression analysis, associations with the risk of developing CV diseases were obtained for the following factors: gender (men), age (≥ 55 years), heart rate (≥ 80 beats/min), SBP (≥ 150 mmHg), marital status single, education (not higher). Individuals with a score above 9 are considered to be at high 10-year risk of cardiovascular events.

Conclusions. A model has been created that predicts the risk of developing CV events in relation to individuals with T2DM living in a large industrial city in Western Siberia. Based on the data obtained, it will be possible to select priority preventive areas and therapeutic interventions.

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