aterosklerozАтеросклерозAteroscleroz2078-256X2949-3633НИИТПМ-филиал ИЦиГ СО РАН10.52727/2078-256X-2024-20-3-229-245ateroskleroz-1067Research ArticleОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИORIGINAL ARTICLESКардиоваскулярные факторы риска и общая смертность в старшем возрасте (15-летнее когортное исследование)Cardiovascular risk factors and all-cause mortality in older age (15-year cohort study)https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6539-0466МалютинаС. К.MalyutinaS. K.

Софья Константиновна Малютина, д-р мед. наук, проф., главный научный сотрудник, зав. лабораторией этиопатогенеза и клиники внутренних заболеваний

630089, г. Новосибирск, ул. Бориса Богаткова, 175/1

Sofia K. Malyutina, doctor of medical sciences, professor, head of the laboratory of etiopathogenesis and clinics of internal diseases

175/1, Boris Bogatkov str., Novosibirsk, 630089

smalyutina@hotmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4030-6130СимоноваГ. И.SimonovaG. I.

Галина Ильинична Симонова, д-р мед. наук, проф., главный научный сотрудник лаборатории этиопатогенеза и клиники внутренних заболеваний

630089, г. Новосибирск, ул. Бориса Богаткова, 175/1

Galina I. Simonova, doctor of medical sciences, professor, chief researcher of the laboratory of etiopathogenesis and clinics of internal diseases

175/1, Boris Bogatkov str., Novosibirsk, 630089

g.simonova2019@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4095-0169РымарО. Д.RymarO. D.

Оксана Дмитриевна Рымар, д-р мед. наук, главный научный сотрудник, зав. лабораторией клинико-популяционных и профилактических исследований терапевтических и эндокринных заболеваний

630089, г. Новосибирск, ул. Бориса Богаткова, 175/1

Oksana D. Rymar, doctor of medical sciences, chief researcher, head of the laboratory of clinical-population and preventive research of therapeutic and endocrine

175/1, Boris Bogatkov str., Novosibirsk, 630089

orymar23@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0415-6478МаздороваЕ. В.MazdorovaE. V.

Екатерина Викторовна Маздорова, канд. мед. наук, старший научный сотрудник лаборатории этиопатогенеза и клиники внутренних заболеваний

630089, г. Новосибирск, ул. Бориса Богаткова, 175/1

Ekaterina V. Mazdorova, candidate of medical sciences, senior researcher laboratory of ethiopathogenesis and clinics of internal diseases

175/1, Boris Bogatkov str., Novosibirsk, 630089

mazdorova@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8577-8801ШапкинаМ. Ю.ShapkinaM. Yu.

Марина Юрьевна Шапкина, канд. мед. наук, старший научный сотрудник лаборатории этиопатогенеза и клиники внутренних заболеваний

630089, г. Новосибирск, ул. Бориса Богаткова, 175/1

Marina Yu. Shapkina, candidate of medical sciences, researcher laboratory of ethiopathogenesis and clinics of internal diseases

175/1, Boris Bogatkov str., Novosibirsk, 630089

marina-shapkina@bk.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7061-9843АвдееваЕ. М.AvdeevaE. M.

Екатерина Михайловна Авдеева, младший научный сотрудник лаборатории этиопатогенеза и клиники внутренних заболеваний

630089, г. Новосибирск, ул. Бориса Богаткова, 175/1

Ekaterina M. Avdeeva, junior researcher laboratory of ethiopathogenesis and clinics of internal diseases

175/1, Boris Bogatkov str., Novosibirsk, 630089

avdeevaem@ngs.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4716-876XМустафинаС. В.MustafinaS. V.

Светлана Владимировна Мустафина, д-р мед. наук, ведущий научный сотрудник лаборатории клинико-популяционных исследований терапевтических и эндокринных заболеваний

630089, г. Новосибирск, ул. Бориса Богаткова, 175/1

Svetlana V. Mustafina, doctor of medical sciences, leading researcher, laboratory of clinical-population and preventive research of therapeutic and endocrine diseases

175/1, Boris Bogatkov str., Novosibirsk, 630089

svetlana3548@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2470-2133ДенисоваД. В.DenisovaD. V.

Диана Вахтанговна Денисова, д-р мед. наук, главный научный сотрудник лаборатории профилактической медицины

630089, г. Новосибирск, ул. Бориса Богаткова, 175/1

Diana V. Denisova, doctor of medical sciences, chief researcher, laboratory of preventive medicine

175/1, Boris Bogatkov str., Novosibirsk, 630089

Научно-исследовательский институт терапии и профилактической медицины – филиал Федерального государственного бюджетного научного учреждения «Федеральный исследовательский центр Институт цитологии и генетики Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук»РоссияResearch Institute of Internal and Preventive Medicine – Branch of the Institute of Cytology and Genetics, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation202401102024203229245Copyright © Малютина С.К., Симонова Г.И., Рымар О.Д., Маздорова Е.В., Шапкина М.Ю., Авдеева Е.М., Мустафина С.В., Денисова Д.В., 20242024Малютина С.К., Симонова Г.И., Рымар О.Д., Маздорова Е.В., Шапкина М.Ю., Авдеева Е.М., Мустафина С.В., Денисова Д.В.Malyutina S.K., Simonova G.I., Rymar O.D., Mazdorova E.V., Shapkina M.Y., Avdeeva E.M., Mustafina S.V., Denisova D.V.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://ateroskleroz.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/1067

Сердечно-сосудистые заболевания (ССЗ) занимают лидирующую позицию в структуре общей смертности. В проспективных и интервенционных исследованиях определены основные факторы риска ССЗ и показаны их ассоциации с риском кардиоваскулярных исходов и смерти от всех причин. Вклад в индивидуальный риск смерти может различаться в зависимости от возраста, пола, дизайна исследования и быть популяционно специфичным. Мы проанализировали вклад основных факторов риска ССЗ в 15-летний риск смерти от всех причин в российской (сибирской) популяционной когорте 45–69 лет.

Материал и методы

Материал и методы. Случайная популяционная выборка (мужчины и женщины 45–69 лет, n = 9360) была обследована исходно в 2003–2005 гг. (Новосибирск, российская ветвь проекта HAPIEE) и повторно в 2006–2008 и 2015–2018 гг. Проводили когортное наблюдение с регистрацией ССЗ, рака, сахарного диабета (СД) и смерти от всех причин. В настоящий анализ включены лица без исходных ССЗ (n = 8087), средний период наблюдения – 15,6 года (стандартное отклонение 0,69 года). Фатальные события регистрировали по данным свидетельств о смерти (ЗАГС) и информации, полученной при серийных скринингах и почтовых опросах. Анализировали ассоциации факторов риска ССЗ с риском смерти от всех причин с помощью мультивариантной регрессии Кокса.

Результаты

Результаты. В когорте 45–69 лет 15-летний риск смерти от всех причин положительно ассоциировался с возрастом (отношение рисков (HR) = 1,08; 95%-й доверительный интервал (95 % ДИ) 1,07–1,09), мужским полом (HR = 1,46; 95 % ДИ 1,24–1,71), артериальной гипертензией (АГ) (HR = 1,39; 95 % ДИ 1,25–1,55), курением (HR = 2,37; 95 % ДИ 2,08–2,70), абдоминальным ожирением (АО) по отношению окружности талии к окружности бедер (HR = 1,19; 95 % ДИ 1,06–1,33) и СД 2 типа (СД2) (HR = 1,52; 95 % ДИ 1,34–1,73) в мультивариантной модели; с гипертриглицеридемией, ожирением и гипергликемией натощак (независимо от возраста и пола) и был отрицательно связан с повышенным уровнем общего холестерина (ХС) или ХС липопротеинов низкой плотности в крови. У мужчин риск смерти был независимо связан с возрастом, АГ, курением, низким уровнем ХС липопротеинов высокой плотности, АО и СД2, у женщин – с возрастом, АГ, курением, СД2, и, в возраст-стандартизованных моделях, с ожирением, АО и гипергликемией.

Заключение

Заключение. В популяционной когорте 45 лет и старше среди факторов риска ССЗ независимый вклад в риск смерти от всех причин имели мужской пол, АГ, курение, АО и СД2. Касательно показателей липидов и глюкозы крови риск смерти связан с низким уровнем ХС липопротеинов высокой плотности у мужчин и, без контроля множественных факторов, с гликемией у женщин и гипертриглицеридемией в общей выборке. Ассоциации кардиоваскулярных факторов риска с риском смерти у лиц старшего возраста имеют возрастные особенности, которые важно учитывать в стратегии по снижению смертности населения.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) occupy a leading position in the structure of all-cause mortality. Prospective and interventional studies have identified the major risk factors for CVD and shown their associations with the risk of cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause death. The impact on the individual risk of death may vary by age, sex, study design, and may be population-specific. We aimed to study the contribution of major CVD risk factors to the 15-year risk of all-cause death in the Russian (Siberian) population cohort aged 45–69 years.

Material and methods

Material and methods. A random population sample (men and women 45–69 years old, n = 9360) was examined at baseline in 2003–2005 (Novosibirsk, Russian branch of the HAPIEE project) and re-examined twice in 2006–2008 and 2015–2018. Current analysis included individuals without baseline CVD (n = 8087), the average follow-up period – 15.6 (SD 0.69) years. The fatal events were registered based on death certificates from the Population Registration Bureau (ZAGS), and using the data received at serial examinations and postal interview. We analyzed the association between CVD risk factors and all-cause death using multivariate Cox regression.

Results

Results. In a cohort aged 45–69, in the adjusted model, 15-year risk of all-cause death was positively associated with age (HR = 1.08; 95 % CI 1.07–1.09), male sex (HR = 1.46; 95 % CI 1.24–1.71), hypertension (HT) (HR = 1.39; 95 % CI 1.25–1.55), smoking (HR = 2.37; 95 % CI 2.08–2.70), high WHR (HR = 1.19; 95 % CI 1.06–1.33), and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) (HR = 1.52; 95 % CI 1.34–1.73), and it was negatively associated with elevated total cholesterol (TC) or LDL-C in blood. In age- and sex-adjusted model, the risk was additionally associated with high triglycerides (HTG), obesity and elevated fasting plasma glucose (FPG). In men, the risk of death was independently associated with age, HT, smoking, low HDL-C, high WHR, and T2DM. In women, the risk of death was independently associated with age, HT, T2DM smoking, and, in age-standardized models, obesity, high WHR, and hyperglycemia.

Conclusions

Conclusions. In a population cohort of 45 years and older, among CVD risk factors male sex, HT, smoking, central obesity, and T2DM independently contributed to the risk of all-cause death. Among lipid parameters, low HDL-C and high TG levels increased the risk of death in men. Associations between cardiovascular risk factors and the risk of all-cause death in older people have the patterns specific for older age; these features are important to take into account in a strategy to reduce mortality in the population.

факторы риска сердечно-сосудистых заболеванийрисксмерть от всех причинкогортное исследованиепроект HAPIEEпопуляцияcardiovascular risk factorsriskall-cause deathcohort studyHAPIEE projectpopulationИсследование поддержано грантом РНФ № 20-15-00371-П. Авторы благодарны проекту HAPIEE (WT; NIA) за доступ к базе данных и сотрудничество, также мы благодарны с.н.с Л.В. Щербаковой и к.б.н., с.н.с. Е.Г. Веревкину за менеджмент баз данных. Сбор конечных точек частично поддержан ГЗ РАН № FWNR2024-0002.This study was supported by RSF grant No20-15-00371-П. The authors are grateful to the HAPIEE project (WT; NIA) for access to the database and cooperation, we are also grateful to senior researcher L.V. Shcherbakova and Ph.D., senior researcher. E.G. Verevkin for database management. The collection of endpoints was partially supported by state task of the Russian Academy of Sciences No. FWNR-2024-0002.ReferencesWorld Health Organization. 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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.